On Thu, 16 Sep 1999, Gilles HENRI wrote:
> A 21:12 -0700 15/09/99, hal.domain.name.hidden a écrit:
> >Closely tied to the self selection assumption is the Doomsday argument,
> >which says that we are probably about halfway along in the lifetime of
> >the human race, hence (if you count by observers or observer-moments)
> >the human race should go extinct within a few thousand years.
This is a prediction of the ASSA. Remember, though, that it just
sets up a prior Bayesian probability distribution which is easily modified
by additional observations.
Gilles wrote:
> maybe [] prediction should read: there is probably no alien race
> which outnumbers the sum of all other races?
Yes (with the ASSA). Of course it is only probable, not certain.
- - - - - - -
Jacques Mallah (jqm1584.domain.name.hidden)
Graduate Student / Many Worlder / Devil's Advocate
"I know what no one else knows" - 'Runaway Train', Soul Asylum
My URL:
http://pages.nyu.edu/~jqm1584/
Received on Thu Sep 16 1999 - 15:06:32 PDT