Re: tautology

From: Jacques M. Mallah <>
Date: Thu, 16 Sep 1999 18:03:18 -0400 (EDT)

On Thu, 16 Sep 1999, Gilles HENRI wrote:
> A 21:12 -0700 15/09/99, a écrit:
> >Closely tied to the self selection assumption is the Doomsday argument,
> >which says that we are probably about halfway along in the lifetime of
> >the human race, hence (if you count by observers or observer-moments)
> >the human race should go extinct within a few thousand years.

        This is a prediction of the ASSA. Remember, though, that it just
sets up a prior Bayesian probability distribution which is easily modified
by additional observations.

Gilles wrote:
> maybe [] prediction should read: there is probably no alien race
> which outnumbers the sum of all other races?

        Yes (with the ASSA). Of course it is only probable, not certain.

                         - - - - - - -
              Jacques Mallah (
       Graduate Student / Many Worlder / Devil's Advocate
"I know what no one else knows" - 'Runaway Train', Soul Asylum
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Received on Thu Sep 16 1999 - 15:06:32 PDT

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