re: observation selection effects

From: Stathis Papaioannou <stathispapaioannou.domain.name.hidden>
Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 10:06:39 +1000

You're right, as was discussed last week. It seems I clicked on the wrong
thing in my email program and have re-sent an old post. My apologies for
taking up the bandwidth!

--Stathis

>From: Kory Heath <kory.heath.domain.name.hidden>
>To: <everything-list.domain.name.hidden>
>Subject: re: observation selection effects
>Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 18:17:50 -0400
>
>At 10:35 AM 10/9/2004, Stathis Papaioannou wrote:
>>From the point of view of typical player, it would seem that there is not:
>>the Winning Flip is as likely to be heads as tails, and if he played the
>>game repeatedly over time, he should expect to break even, whether he
>>switches in the final step or not.
>
>That's not correct. While it's true that the Winning Flip is as likely to
>be heads as tails, it's not true that I'm as likely to be in the winning
>group as the loosing group. Look at the case when there are only three
>players. There are eight possible outcomes:
>
>Me: H Player 1: H Player 2: H - WF: T
>Me: H Player 1: H Player 2: T - WF: T
>Me: H Player 1: T Player 2: H - WF: T
>Me: H Player 1: T Player 2: T - WF: H
>Me: T Player 1: H Player 2: H - WF: T
>Me: T Player 1: H Player 2: T - WF: H
>Me: T Player 1: T Player 2: H - WF: H
>Me: T Player 1: T Player 2: T - WF: H
>
>I am in the winning group in only two out of these eight cases. So my
>chances of winning if I don't switch are 1/4, and my chances of winning if
>I do switch are 3/4. There's no paradox here.
>
>-- Kory
>

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Received on Sun Oct 10 2004 - 20:07:41 PDT

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