Re: Extra Terrestrials

From: <>
Date: Mon, 7 Aug 2000 23:53:13 EDT

In a message dated 08/07/2000 4:23:09 PM Pacific Daylight Time, writes:

> George, this is an error. There is no such thing as a special "knee"
> of the exponential curve. For any exponential curve, the scale of
> the vertical axis determines where the "knee" appears, and one can
> select that scale to make the "knee" appear anywhere on the x-axis
> that one desires. Try it!!

You are correct with regard the scaling property of exponentials. However, if
you set up your scale such that you have a linear plot of scientific
progress, you'll find that the X axis looks like an inverted log scale. All I
wanted to say is that we'll change far too much between the beginning of
radio and the end of the 21 century to remain at the "same level."
Civilizations belonging to such different levels may be too different to have
a constructive dialogue. Think of the havoc in the culture of primitive
tribes after their contact with Europeans. Because of this log relationship,
5000 years then may be equivalent to 100 years now. What matters is the time
interval between the beginning of radio and the onset of the next level,
allowing either a gradual or discrete transition from one level to the next.

George Levy
Received on Mon Aug 07 2000 - 21:00:10 PDT

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