Sorry, but I'm not sampling my own age independently. The probability
that I see myself as age 36 years, given that I'm 36 years old is
1. It is zero for any other age. The probability that I see JM at age
36, given that I am 36 years old is a value given by the distribution
of observer moments that you talk about. That is independent sampling.
Your use of Bayesian enquiry is ridiculous, because you cannot sample
your own age independently.
Jacques Mallah wrote:
> > You are still sampling independently. This is simply
> > not the case.
>
> Is it not true that you do not simultaneously
> experience all the moments of your life? No, so it
> means something to ask: How old are you? It is thus a
> legitimate question for Bayesian inquiry. I wouldn't
> use the word "sampling". But it's obvious that the
> same considerations of effective probability apply to
> age within the set you call "you" as to any
> characteristic within any set of observer-moments.
> Your attempt to pretend otherwise is ridiculous.
> It's similar to what Fritz Griffith was saying when I
> had to explain effective probability to him, but at
> least he was honest enough to apply that across the
> board.
>
>
> =====
> - - - - - - -
> Jacques Mallah (jackmallah.domain.name.hidden)
> Physicist / Many Worlder / Devil's Advocate
> "I know what no one else knows" - 'Runaway Train', Soul Asylum
> My URL: http://hammer.prohosting.com/~mathmind/
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Send instant messages & get email alerts with Yahoo! Messenger.
> http://im.yahoo.com/
>
>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Russell Standish Director
High Performance Computing Support Unit, Phone 9385 6967
UNSW SYDNEY 2052 Fax 9385 6965
Australia R.Standish.domain.name.hidden
Room 2075, Red Centre
http://parallel.hpc.unsw.edu.au/rks
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Received on Thu May 18 2000 - 21:51:47 PDT