Re: normalization

From: <GSLevy.domain.name.hidden>
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2000 00:35:18 EST

In a message dated 01/17/2000 4:58:50 PM Pacific Standard Time,
jqm1584.domain.name.hidden writes:

> The RSSA is not another way of viewing the world; it is a
> category error.
I use the RSSA as the basis for calculating what I call the relative
probability, in this group the first person probability, or, equivalently,
the probability conditional on the life of the observer. The ASSA is by
extension, the assumption for calculating the 3rd person probability.

Let us perform a thought experiment.
Imagine that you are the scientist in the Schroedinger cat experiment. Please
calculate the probability that the cat stays alive. Let's call this the 3rd
person probability. Assume that the vial of cyanide has an 50% (objective)
probability of breaking during the experiment.

Now imagine that you are the cat. (A very intelligent cat with a knowledge of
probabilities) Please calculate the probability of staying alive. Call this
the first person probability.

Now imagine testing your calculations with experiment.

First, pretend you are the scientist and perform a large number of cat
experiments. Does your third person calculation statistically agrees with the
experimental data? (i.e. you should see about 50% of the cats meet their
demise)

Now, pretend you are the cat, and perform a large number of experiments. Does
the first person calculation statistically agrees with the experimental data
that you have accumulated? (you should see your survival 100% of the time)


The relative probability concept (1st and 3rd persons) can be used in other
ways. Here is another example:

You take a flight from New York to Los Angeles. Assume the following:
The objective (3rd person) probability of a crash is 0.001
The objective (3rd person) probability of a hijacking to Cuba is 0.001.

What are the first and third person probabilities of reaching Havana and Los
Angeles?

Answer:
The third person probabilities are:
Probability of a crash = 0.001
Probability of going to Havana = 0.001
Probability of going to LA = (1- 0.001) x (1-0.001) = 0.998001%

The first person probabilites are
Probability of a crash = 0.000
Probability of going to Havana = 0.001
Probability of going to LA = (1 - 0.000 ) x (1 - 0.001) = 0.999

This is just to illustrate the point that depending on the frame of reference
of the observer, the experimental results will be different.

George Levy
Received on Mon Jan 17 2000 - 21:36:52 PST