Re: Probability

From: Brent Meeker <meekerdb.domain.name.hidden>
Date: Fri, 07 Nov 2008 10:22:13 -0800

GŁnther Greindl wrote:
> Thomas,
>
>
>> MW must be some how different from the same concept in everyday
>> language? In the latter "probably" just means "likely to happen" but
>> if EVERYTHING happens then how can the concept make sense? I guess it
>> must be two different concepts, then?
>>
>
> I wouldn't say so. Always look at the word "probably" as referring to
> uncertainty in the _epistemic state of an agent_; and not as uncertainty
> what will happen in the world. Then you see that it is the same concept
> in both cases.
>
> Cheers,
> GŁnther
>
>
I don't think that resolves the problem. An epistemic state is a state
of knowledge, so it just pushes the problem off to the question
"knowledge of what?"

Or perhaps you're thinking of "epistemic" as a state of belief. But
then probabilities become purely subjective and something else is needed
to relate them back to things like relative frequencies.

In my view probability theory is a mathematical model and it is useful
precisely because it applies (not necessarily exactly, but as a good
approximation) to things. So one switches between relative frequency,
propensity, and subjective interpretations in a single problem.

Brent

--~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group.
To post to this group, send email to everything-list.domain.name.hidden
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to everything-list+unsubscribe.domain.name.hidden
For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list?hl=en
-~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
Received on Fri Nov 07 2008 - 13:22:12 PST

This archive was generated by hypermail 2.3.0 : Fri Feb 16 2018 - 13:20:15 PST