Re: Bayesian boxes and Independence of Scales

From: <GSLevy.domain.name.hidden>
Date: Sat, 15 May 1999 19:58:27 EDT

In a message dated 99-05-14 15:55:53 EDT, Jacques Mallah writes:

<<
         Ok, now you seem to think that the expected value for the other
 box is exp((log(2m)+log(m/2))/2) given that the first box contains m and
 given a 50% chance that the second box contains 2m. Ok, that's
 unconventional logic all right! Weird conclusions from unrelated
 assumptions. >>

 I agree the conclusion is weird. However, As Wei Dai mentioned we need to
revise the concept of probability in the context of the MW. The logarithmic
distribution was just an example. IN FACT THE DISTRIBUTION CAN BE ANYTHING AS
LONG AS IT SATISFIES THE EXPECTATION VALUE = m FOR THE SECOND BOX..


<< I think even your allies would part company with you here. At
 least it would seem to imply that in 100 years, you would most likely have
 no memory of being your current self who's reading this, right? If not it
 would be very strange to find yourself on the early transition to
 conventional immortality!
         Higgo James not only believes he's immortal, he also believes that
 he's less than a Plank time old. I thought that was strange, but you're
 up there with him.
>>

I didn't know I had "allies" and enemies. I thought we were all friends
striving toward truth. Anyways, assigning me in James Higgo camp is for me a
compliment. The point that James (I think) and I are making is that the whole
common sense concept of linearly continuous time and linearly continuous
consciousness should be revised as explained in Deutsch's book, the Fabric of
Reality.

 << Anyway, 4*10^9 years is nothing. If you were really immortal, you
 should expect to be a lot older than that. >>

I agree 4*10**9 years is nothing in the great schemes of MW. However, given
who I am here and now, and how I feel here and now, and how I perceive my
consciousness here and now, it makes lots of sense for me to perceive myself
to be my age here and now. (P{m/m} = 1). In 500 years I-we will undoubtedly
feel different but however I-we feel and whatever the worlds I-we will
perceive, this-these worlds will have to explain my-our existence (P{m/m} =
1) just as this world here and now explains my existence (Re: Anthropic
principle applied to all possible worlds within the scope of my-our
perception(s) 500 years from now ).
 
>>
Received on Sat May 15 1999 - 17:01:36 PDT