Re: momentary and persistent minds

From: Wei Dai <weidai.domain.name.hidden>
Date: Thu, 4 Jun 1998 23:50:10 -0700

On Thu, Jun 04, 1998 at 10:55:56PM -0700, Hal Finney wrote:
> Wei - Could you run through the calculations by which you derive your
> results? I have:
>
> P(A|B) = P(A&B) / P(B)
>
> A = "I will see a heads-up coin and clock reading 2"
> B = "I currently see clock reading 0"
>
> Events which satisfy A: (a,b) [i.e. all i for which F(i) includes d,e]
> Events which satisfy B: (a)
>
> p(A&B) = Q( intersection of above two event sets ) = Q( a ) = 2/7
> p(B) = Q( a ) = 2/7
>
> p(A|B) = 1
>
> I'm writing this a bit late, what am I missing?

No you're not missing anything. I already sent a followup saying I made a
mistake. I should have specified two observer-instants at time 0 each with
measure 1/7 instead of one with measure 2/7. I think the results do
confirm our intuition of the difference between observer splitting and
observer differntiation.
Received on Thu Jun 04 1998 - 23:51:25 PDT