Re: momentary and persistent minds

From: Hal Finney <hal.domain.name.hidden>
Date: Thu, 4 Jun 1998 22:55:56 -0700

Wei - Could you run through the calculations by which you derive your
results? I have:

P(A|B) = P(A&B) / P(B)

A = "I will see a heads-up coin and clock reading 2"
B = "I currently see clock reading 0"

Events which satisfy A: (a,b) [i.e. all i for which F(i) includes d,e]
Events which satisfy B: (a)

p(A&B) = Q( intersection of above two event sets ) = Q( a ) = 2/7
p(B) = Q( a ) = 2/7

p(A|B) = 1

I'm writing this a bit late, what am I missing?

Hal
Received on Thu Jun 04 1998 - 23:00:40 PDT