Re: Observation selection effects

From: Stathis Papaioannou <stathispapaioannou.domain.name.hidden>
Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 23:57:30 +1000

Addition to my last post:

>(1) The original game: envelope A and B, you know one has double the amount
>of the other, but you don't know which. You open A and find $100. Should
>you switch to B, which may have either $50 or $200?

>(2) A variation: everything is the same, up to the point where you are
>pondering whether to switch to envelope B, when the millionaire walks in,
>and hidden from view, flips a coin to decide whether to replace whatever
>was originally in envelope B with either double or half the sum in envelope
>A, i.e. either $50 or $200.

Say one envelope contains $x and the other $2x. If you keep the first
envelope in game (2), and if you keep the first one OR switch in game (1),
you should expect to win $1.5x. If you switch in game (2), you should expect
to win 0.25*($0.5x + $2x + $x +$4x) = $1.875x.

Stathis Papaioannou

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Received on Thu Oct 07 2004 - 10:06:20 PDT

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