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From: Eric Cavalcanti <eric.domain.name.hidden>

Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 09:56:52 +1000

On Tue, 2004-10-05 at 19:31, Brent Meeker wrote:

*> >I always forget to reply-to-all in this list.
*

*> >So below goes my reply which went only to Hal Finney.
*

*> >
*

*> >-----Forwarded Message-----
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*> >> From: Eric Cavalcanti <eric.domain.name.hidden>
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*> >> > Think about if the odd number of players was exactly
*

*> >one. You're guaranteed
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*> >> > to have the Winning Flip before you switch.
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*>
*

*> No, you're guranteed NOT to be in the winning flip.
*

*>
*

*> >> >
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*> >> > Then think about what would happen if the odd number
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*> >of players was three.
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*> >> > Then you have a 3/4 chance of having the Winning
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*> >Flip before you switch.
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*> >> > Only if the other two players' flips both disagree
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*> >with yours will you not
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*> >> > have the Winnning Flip, and there is only a 1/4
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*> >chance of that happening.
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*> >
*

*> >Exactly.
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*> >
*

*> >It is interesting to note that, even though you are
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*> >more likely to be in the Winning Flip, there is no
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*> >disadvantage in Switching. To understand that, we can
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*> >look at the N=3 case, and see that if I am in the
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*> >Winning Flip with someone else, then if I change I
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*> >will still be in the Winnig Flip with the other person.
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*> >
*

*> >As opposed to Stathis initial thought, even though the
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*> >Winning Flip is indeed as likely to be Heads as Tails,
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*> >each individual is more likely to be in the
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*> >Winning Flip as in the Losing Flip in any given run.
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*> >
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*> >So that this would never make it into a Casino game,
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*> >because the house would lose money in the long run.
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*> I think you've confused the definitions of "winning flip" and
*

*> "losing flip". The "winning flip" is the *minority at the time of
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*> the flip* For N=3 you can't be in the winning flip with someone
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*> else at the time of the flip - but you can switch to it.
*

Yes, you're right.

Hal and I have confused the definitions. It is still

not a paradox, though. You are more likely to be

in the Losing Flip.

So that this could indeed be a Casino game.

Eric.

Received on Tue Oct 05 2004 - 19:57:38 PDT

Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 09:56:52 +1000

On Tue, 2004-10-05 at 19:31, Brent Meeker wrote:

Yes, you're right.

Hal and I have confused the definitions. It is still

not a paradox, though. You are more likely to be

in the Losing Flip.

So that this could indeed be a Casino game.

Eric.

Received on Tue Oct 05 2004 - 19:57:38 PDT

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