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From: Eric Hawthorne <egh.domain.name.hidden>

Date: Thu, 09 Jan 2003 21:38:47 -0800

George Levy wrote:

*>
*

*> Conclusions:
*

*> All this involves really basic probability theory.
*

*> The first person perspective probability is identical to the
*

*> probability conditional to the person staying alive.
*

But that first-person probability is not objective, and not valid, and

not useful.

Consider this from a purely pragmatic point of view. (Not a formal

argument per say.)

A person must consider the (non-zero) objective probability that they

will die (and be then non-existent) (if they do this or that action). If

people did not account for the probability

that they will die if they do a foolish act, then they will probably

die. Their subjective

1st person sense of probability is naively optimistic and not a survival

trait. If

a person acts with that kind of probability belief in every possible

world, they will

reduce their measure beyond measure. Surely there is something incorrect

about

a probability view which has that detrimental effect on one's measure.

Received on Fri Jan 10 2003 - 00:36:37 PST

Date: Thu, 09 Jan 2003 21:38:47 -0800

George Levy wrote:

But that first-person probability is not objective, and not valid, and

not useful.

Consider this from a purely pragmatic point of view. (Not a formal

argument per say.)

A person must consider the (non-zero) objective probability that they

will die (and be then non-existent) (if they do this or that action). If

people did not account for the probability

that they will die if they do a foolish act, then they will probably

die. Their subjective

1st person sense of probability is naively optimistic and not a survival

trait. If

a person acts with that kind of probability belief in every possible

world, they will

reduce their measure beyond measure. Surely there is something incorrect

about

a probability view which has that detrimental effect on one's measure.

Received on Fri Jan 10 2003 - 00:36:37 PST

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