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From: Bill Jefferys <bill.domain.name.hidden>

Date: Sat, 7 Sep 2002 15:08:51 -0500

At 6:15 PM -0700 on 9/6/02, Osher Doctorow wrote:

*>From: Osher Doctorow osher.domain.name.hidden, Fri. Sept. 6, 2002 6:17PM
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*>
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*>Bill Jefferys says:
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*>
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*>< Nonsense. It's done all the time for events of low probability.
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*>
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*>If *doing something all the time* is your reply to nonsense, then can I
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*>assume that not doing something is your reply to *sense*? Ah well, the
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*>subtleties of logic!
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*>
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*>Do you really want to argue about division by 0 and near 0 denominator?
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*>Why don't you think about if for a few days or weeks. I would hate to see
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*>you lose so easily.
*

Who said anything about dividing by zero? You said:

*> >Thus, not only can
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*> >conditional probability not model events of probability 0, but it cannot
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*> >even model events of probability close to 0 (Rare Events).
*

Proof by example:

Example 1: The probability that if I toss a fair coin it will land on

its edge is pretty close to zero, say epsilon.

P(edge|fair coin tossed fairly)<<1

Are you saying that I cannot model this using conditional

probability? I just did.

Example 2: P(A|~A)=0, for any A. Are you saying that I cannot model

this using conditional probability? I just did. [Note: ~ means "not"]

Example 3: I can calculate the conditional probability that someone

else at the poker table has a straight flush, given that I have a

particular straight flush. This is very low probability. Are you

saying that I can't model this with conditional probability? This is

just a problem in combinatorics, and can be done.

Note that never have to divide by zero, either.

I am guessing that you must have something else in mind, but I sure

don't know what it is.

Bill

Received on Sat Sep 07 2002 - 13:15:17 PDT

Date: Sat, 7 Sep 2002 15:08:51 -0500

At 6:15 PM -0700 on 9/6/02, Osher Doctorow wrote:

Who said anything about dividing by zero? You said:

Proof by example:

Example 1: The probability that if I toss a fair coin it will land on

its edge is pretty close to zero, say epsilon.

P(edge|fair coin tossed fairly)<<1

Are you saying that I cannot model this using conditional

probability? I just did.

Example 2: P(A|~A)=0, for any A. Are you saying that I cannot model

this using conditional probability? I just did. [Note: ~ means "not"]

Example 3: I can calculate the conditional probability that someone

else at the poker table has a straight flush, given that I have a

particular straight flush. This is very low probability. Are you

saying that I can't model this with conditional probability? This is

just a problem in combinatorics, and can be done.

Note that never have to divide by zero, either.

I am guessing that you must have something else in mind, but I sure

don't know what it is.

Bill

Received on Sat Sep 07 2002 - 13:15:17 PDT

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