Re: Optimal Prediction

From: Wei Dai <>
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2002 09:32:10 -0800

On Thu, Mar 28, 2002 at 10:44:41AM -0500, Bill Jefferys wrote:
> It's pointless wasting my time on this. As both Russell and I pointed
> out, this is a standard example that is cited by people who are
> knowledgeable about the AP. Either you have a different definition of
> predictive power than the rest of us do, or you don't understand
> Hoyle's very clearly written paper. In either case, it would be
> foolish of me to continue the thread.
> Goodbye. <plonk>

Perhaps you're not familiar with the history of this mailing list, but
Juergen Schmidhuber is one of the first authors to explicitly state the
idea that all possible universes exist in a published scientific paper,
and that paper is cited in the public invitation to this mailing list. I
have to say it's very inappropriate to publicly "plonk" him when it seems
to be you that doesn't understand the issue at hand.

I agree with Juergen that AP does not predict anything by itself. You need
at least a probability distribution or measure of some sort in addition to
AP. There has been extensive discussion on this list over exactly what
measure should be used, and what the measure is over.

Have you read Juergen's paper "A Computer Scientist's View of Life, the
Universe, and Everything"? If not please do so before making any more
posts. It's at
Received on Thu Mar 28 2002 - 09:33:47 PST

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