Except that it is possible to perform an infinite amount of
computation in the big crunch due to Tipler's argument, and only a
finite amount of computation with the open universe (Dyson's
argument). Sort of the opposite of what you might expect...
Anyway, it looks like we're falling into a supermassive black hole
right now, but we've got about 100 billion (10^11) years before we hit
the event horizon. (Reported in New Scientist a couple of issue ago).
Cheers
Charles Goodwin wrote:
>
> Another thought on the Bayesian / SSA argument. Suppose (recent cosmological discoveries aside) that we discovered that the universe
> was going to fall back on itself into a big crunch in, say, 1 googol years' time. In such a universe QTI could still operate, but
> would only operate until the big crunch, which would act as a cul-de-sac. Now the SSA would say that typically you'd "expect to find
> yourself" (whatever that means) with an age around 0.5 googol, but that nevertheless there was a finite chance that you'd "find
> yourself" at age, say, 20. So assuming the SSA is valid for a moment, it wouldn't rule out QTI (although it would make it seem
> rather unlikely) if we discussed it when aged 20 in a closed universe. But it would be *impossible* if had the same discussion in an
> open universe! Odd that the average density of our branch of the multiverse should make all the difference to a theory based on the
> MWI . . . odd too (though not impossible) that the distant future history of the universe should determine the probability of events
> in the present . . .
>
> (BTW, would I be right in thinking that, applying the SSA to a person who "finds himself" to be 1 year old, the chances that he'll
> live to be 80 is 1/80?)
>
> Charles
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Russell Standish [mailto:R.Standish.domain.name.hidden]
> > Sent: Wednesday, 12 September 2001 12:35 p.m.
> > To: Charles Goodwin
> > Cc: "Everything-List (E-mail)"
> > Subject: Re: Conventional QTI = False
> >
> >
> > The reason for failure of Jacques' argument is no. 1) from Charles's
> > list below, which he obviously thought of independently of me. I
> > originally posted this at
> > http://www.escribe.com/science/theory/m583.html, on 10th May
> > 1999. Unfortunately, I couldn't find where the orginal SSA argument
> > was posted - perhaps this was via some other papers.
> >
> > The discussion that followed over the following year was quite
> > interesting at times, and boringly technical at other times. It
> > clarified a number of technical concepts, in particular what became
> > known as the ASSA - which seems exactly like point 3) of Charles's
> > post below: random hoppings of some "soul" between observer
> > moments. Despite your protestations to the contrary Jacques, which I
> > never found convincing.
> >
> > By contrast, "soul hopping" does not happen in the usual formulation
> > of QTI, although I grant it is a feature of some computational
> > theories of immortality based on infinite sized universes.
> >
> > I find it very droll that Jacques attempted to tar his opposition's
> > theories with the very same brush that tars his own ASSA theory.
> >
> > The point of this is not to say that QTI is true (for which I
> > retain my
> > usual degree of scepticism), but simply that the Jacques Mallah SSA
> > argument simply does not work as a counter argument.
> >
> > Cheers
> >
> > Charles Goodwin wrote:
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: Jacques Mallah [mailto:jackmallah.domain.name.hidden]
> > > >
> > > > >From: Russell Standish <R.Standish.domain.name.hidden>
> > > > >I suspect you are trying to find ways of making QTI
> > compatible with
> > > > >Jacques ASSA based argument, when it is clear his argument fails
> > > > >completely. Not that the argument is unimportant, as the
> > reasons for
> > > > >the failure are also interesting.
> > > >
> > > > What the hell are you babbling about?
> > >
> > > I don't know whether he's thinking about my objections to
> > the SSA argument, but mine certainly *appear* to undermine it
> > (at least I
> > > haven't yet heard a good reason why they don't). Briefly,
> > (1) the SSA argument neglects the fact that even with an
> > infinitely long
> > > worldline, everyone must pass through every age from 0
> > upwards, which is precisely what we observe. It also (2)
> > ignores a selection
> > > effect, namely that only in a thermodynamically low number
> > of universes can a person who is not "QTI-old" expect to
> > communicate with
> > > someone who *is* (and hence 99.999999999999...% of
> > discussion groups will necessarily be composed of "QTI-young"
> > people). The SSA
> > > argument also (3) gives the strong impression (though this
> > could *perhaps* be argued away) that it relies on us treating our
> > > worldlines as though we've just been "dropped" into them at
> > some random point, like Billy Pilgrim; which is, of course, not what
> > > happens in reality.
> > >
> > > Maybe there are some more technical objections to the SSA
> > argument, but these are the simplest and most obvious.
> > >
> > > Charles
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > --------------------------------------------------------------
> > --------------
> > Dr. Russell Standish Director
> > High Performance Computing Support Unit, Phone 9385 6967,
> > 8308 3119 (mobile)
> > UNSW SYDNEY 2052 Fax 9385 6965, 0425
> > 253119 (")
> > Australia R.Standish.domain.name.hidden
> >
> > Room 2075, Red Centre
> http://parallel.hpc.unsw.edu.au/rks
> International prefix +612, Interstate prefix 02
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Russell Standish Director
High Performance Computing Support Unit, Phone 9385 6967, 8308 3119 (mobile)
UNSW SYDNEY 2052 Fax 9385 6965, 0425 253119 (")
Australia R.Standish.domain.name.hidden
Room 2075, Red Centre
http://parallel.hpc.unsw.edu.au/rks
International prefix +612, Interstate prefix 02
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Received on Tue Sep 11 2001 - 20:15:53 PDT