Re: against UD+ASSA, part 1

From: Stathis Papaioannou <>
Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2007 11:30:52 +1000

On 01/10/2007, Russell Standish <> wrote:

> It isn't, because Mallah's DA + ASSA predicts a negligible probability
> of finding oneself in an OM of (say) greater than 120 years old,
> whereas with the RSSA one has the QTI predictions, and experiencing
> being 200 years old is not that unusual. Explaining how two
> intelligent people can come to such dramatically different conclusions
> from a given argument lead to formalising this distinction between the
> ASSA and the RSSA.

There is a small probability that you will find yourself greater than
120 years old, but you might still be guaranteed of living to 120. For
example, if the lifespan of every human were exactly 120 years and one
minute, then you are very unlikely to find yourself over 120 years
old, yet you will certainly find yourself over that age eventually.
Similarly with the QTI your measure is not uniform over your entire
very long lifespan, so that a randomly sampled OM is very unlikely to
be over 1000 years old, but you are still guaranteed of exceeding that
age eventually. Is there an inconsistency here?

Stathis Papaioannou
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Received on Sun Sep 30 2007 - 21:51:07 PDT

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