On Wed, Jun 20, 2007 at 02:22:20AM +0800, Mark Peaty wrote:
>
> I heard someone on the radio the other day saying that Moore's
> Law [doubling every 2 years] predicts that computers in about
> 2050 will have gross processing power similar to that of the
> human brain. Well the architecture may be a bit of a hurdle, but
> then again if each generation of computers acquires software
> enabling them to participate in, if not actually direct, the
> design of the next generation, it is feasible that during the
> second half of the 21Century some computers may start asking US
> why we think we are conscious.
>
Yes, except that its actually about 2020. We already have simulation
of a mouse brain about 10 times slower than realtime, on a
big IBM supercomputer. And Moore's law is actually doubling every 18
months, not 2 years (perhaps that explains the discrepancy in the
figures).
By about 2035, or so, your average PC will have the computational
power to simulate a human brain.
I don't believe computational power is enough, and that significant
software hurdles need to be overcome, but it is believable that this
could happen on that sort of time scale (assuming Moore's law doesn't
peter out).
--
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A/Prof Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Mathematics
UNSW SYDNEY 2052 hpcoder.domain.name.hidden
Australia http://www.hpcoders.com.au
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Received on Tue Jun 19 2007 - 20:34:46 PDT