On Mon, 18 Oct 1999, Russell Standish wrote:
> > Your above comments make no sense to me. Perhaps you should
> > attempt to clarify them. I will say that you seem to have missed the
> > point of the Bayesian analysis. It is useful because the ASSA predicts
> > that one is unlikely to observe a large age for oneself. The fact that
> > the ASSA does so is supremely obvious from the fact that at large ages the
> > measure is smaller.
>
> It is _not_ supremely obvious. The only thing that is obvious is what
> it say about _external_ reality - i.e. it predicts one is unlikely to
> see a large age for someone else. It says absolutely nothing about
> what you observe about yourself.
If I look at Joe Shmoe's age, why is it (with the ASSA) unlikely
for me to see a large age? Because the measure of Jack Mallahs that see
that Joe Shmoe has a large age is small.
If I look at Jack Mallah's age, why is it (with the ASSA) unlikely
for me to see a large age? Because the measure of Jack Mallahs that see
that Jack Mallah has a large age is small.
What's the difference?
- - - - - - -
Jacques Mallah (jqm1584.domain.name.hidden)
Graduate Student / Many Worlder / Devil's Advocate
"I know what no one else knows" - 'Runaway Train', Soul Asylum
My URL:
http://pages.nyu.edu/~jqm1584/
Received on Tue Oct 19 1999 - 12:55:31 PDT