Re: Doomsday is yet another paradox which disappears under MWI

From: Gale <>
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 20:47:13 -0500

Higgo James wrote:
> I wrote to Nick Bostrom last year showing that in MWI his analogue between
> the ball-filled urns does not apply. With the urns, either they are nearly
> empty or not; with MWI we live for billions of years in some universes but
> all die tomorrow in others. I can't remember what he replied.

Does MWI then deny the validity of Bayes Theorem? That is all the DA is
based on. There are no errors of commission, but a whopping error of
as laid out in
Too soon for doom gloom? Tomas Kopf, Pavel Krtous, and Don N. Page

No One Knows the Date of the Hour: An Unorthodox Application of Rev.
Bayes' Theorem
Paul Bartha, Christopher Hitchcock

(both from Bostrom's collection). The omission is also just an
application of
Bayes Theorem. If MWI is denying Bayes Theorem, there may be some
scepticism on
accepting it.

Received on Fri Jan 29 1999 - 17:48:07 PST

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