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From: Wei Dai <weidai.domain.name.hidden>

Date: Tue, 9 Jun 1998 12:36:15 -0700

On Tue, Jun 09, 1998 at 08:42:40AM -0700, Hal Finney wrote:

*> I have two questions:
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*>
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*> What does it mean to say "the probability that I am experiencing X"?
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*> Naively we would say that either I am experiencing X or I am not, and
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*> I know which is the case, so there is no probability involved. It seems
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*> that what is really being defined is "the probability that a random
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*> conscious event consists of someone experiencing X".
*

It's your prior probability before taking into account your actual

perceptions. Your posterior probabilities are of the form "the probability

that I am experiencing X, given that I am experiencing Y" where Y is

a complete description of your experiences, which would of

course be either 0 or 1. I think the prior probabilities are useful for

explaining why we're experiencing what we're experiencing.

*> How do you come up with the probability assignments for events? Where did
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*> your 1/7, 2/7, etc. come from?
*

It's a good question what they should be in a general theory. For the

example I just made up some numbers for illustration.

Received on Tue Jun 09 1998 - 12:46:25 PDT

Date: Tue, 9 Jun 1998 12:36:15 -0700

On Tue, Jun 09, 1998 at 08:42:40AM -0700, Hal Finney wrote:

It's your prior probability before taking into account your actual

perceptions. Your posterior probabilities are of the form "the probability

that I am experiencing X, given that I am experiencing Y" where Y is

a complete description of your experiences, which would of

course be either 0 or 1. I think the prior probabilities are useful for

explaining why we're experiencing what we're experiencing.

It's a good question what they should be in a general theory. For the

example I just made up some numbers for illustration.

Received on Tue Jun 09 1998 - 12:46:25 PDT

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