Wei wrote:
> I don't understand your reasoning then.
snip
> Something strange is going on here, but I don't know what. If I'm right,
> everyone in this scenario should believe the universe is equally likely to
> be type A as type B and then change his mind after learning his name. A
> simple Dutch book argument suggests this is irrational
Yes, that is exactly my point. If you see how the hypothetical
reasoning I gave leads to this absurdity, then you have seen the
reductio, and I might not need to try to explain it in more detail?
>, but as far as I
> can see the probability computations are correct. May I'm missing
> something obvious.
Yes: that it is not rational to consider one's name a random sample
from the set of all possible names.Once this is realized, the
absurd conclusion won't follow.
_____________________________________________________
Nick Bostrom
Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
London School of Economics
n.bostrom.domain.name.hidden
http://www.hedweb.com/nickb
Received on Thu Apr 23 1998 - 18:12:09 PDT