Re: a baysian solution

From: Wei Dai <>
Date: Tue, 14 Apr 1998 16:52:08 -0700

On Tue, Apr 14, 1998 at 04:30:27PM -0700, Wei Dai wrote:
> P(Rank(Nick) <= 100 | universe B is real) is either 0 or 1, depending on
> what universe B is. You can ask about computational limitations, but I
> think we need to assume no computational limitations at this point. I have
> not heard of any systematic way to integrate computational costs into
> decision theory, and this project is way to big for us to tackle here.
> (Although if you can prove me wrong I'll be very happy!)

Maybe I fired this off too quickly. What I'm trying to say is that
universe B is some specific universe, in which the person refered to as
Nick either has or does not have a rank of less than or equal to 100.
Given that universe B is real, the probability that the real Nick has a
rank <= 100 is either 1 or 0, depending on whether the Nick in universe B
has or does not have a rank <= 100. Ignoring computational limitations, it
is not rational for anyone to assign 1/2 to this conditional probability.
Received on Tue Apr 14 1998 - 16:54:35 PDT

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